I Solutions had Informative & Interactive Session with Industry Stalwarts like Nilesh Shah, Navneet Munot, Sunil Singhania, Basant Maheshwari, Neelesh Surana, Shankar Sharma, Madhu Kela,Samir Arora & N Jayakumar. and has comeout with summary for your knowhow.
Economy & Business Post COVID-19: Market Perspectives.
COVID-19 has affected all facets of the economy and stock markets have also seen a major correction with Nifty falling almost 38% from a level of 12362 to the 7610 levels in matter of 1 month. The market sentiments has taken into account the current lockdown and is still reeling under its effects. Markets shall be news-flow based & behavioural driven rather then fundamentally driven for 6-9 months.
Is the worst over for the markets?
- As Mentioned earlier it all depends on the number of cases of COVID-19 and the time period of this disease.
- Stimulus measures by government across the globe will also play a vital role
- However, It is expected to be a hard quarter for several businesses.
- The Key Risks & Challenges for Investors having exposure to equities
- For existing investor if we are not in need of money , then do nothing is the best thing to do. Its just a matter of time to overlook it and if possible If you are in spare of money then it’s the time to do averaging by buying at lower levels to gain faster
- Advise for New Investments & Investors wanting to enter 1st time in equities
- If investor has minimum horizon of 2-3 years to stay invested then should make staggered investments over 3-6 months to make best possible returns from the equities. High chances to make atleast 50% over 3 years even if market recovers to till now recorded peak levels.
Key factors post lockdown and end of Covid-19
- Many factors are there which are overlooked due to covid 19 like
- Lower prices of crudeoil which will benefit india .
- Intrest Rate cuts which will boost business and purchasing power.
- Transformation of manufacturing business units from china to countries like India , vietnam ....
- And strong government stimulus measures will boost economy . And many other...
Role of the government in boosting the economy which will help the markets to revive.
- The sector wise recovery and pros & cons.
- Lot of importance and spending will come towards specialty chemical companies, Pharma & healthcare,etc
- Savings will become most important now and these savings will eventually go into the mutual funds, banking, and insurance sector.
- Good infrastructure, technology and digitalisation will lead to sustainable growth.
- Low ticket consumer items will do better and so will contract manufacturing firms according to him.
- Telecom and data space shall gain great momentum for times to come.
- Real Estate sector shall be in massive crisis for atleast 12-18 months and most of the builders who acquired land at much higher cost shall never recover the same prices and to offload the current inventories they shall have to take a hit of atleast 20-30%. Trend of Rental is preferred, Comparing 2% rent with 9% in loan,not holding assets look like a better choice.
- Micro Finance cos, NBFCs, & Banks with high NPAs shall have a difficult time and shall go through tremendous stress.
Market perception and the way forward.
Three things that fund manager focused before picking a equities were: the business, its management, and the right price. Getting all three together was very difficult but right now there are several stocks which at their current valuation are ticking all three boxes.
Conclusion & Key takeaway
Best Time to make an Opportunity from Short term Threat & Crisis